The NFL’s 2023 conference championship games are set with the Kansas City Chiefs (15-3, 8-1 home) hosting the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4, 7-3 away) in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3, 9-1 home) hosting the San Francisco 49ers (15-4, 5-3 away) in the NFC.
The overall theme of the conference championships is parity. Neither spread is more than a field goal, and the updated Super Bowl futures are razor tight.
2023 Super Bowl Odds
The Chiefs continue to be favored, as they were heading into the divisional round, but at +230, they are only fractionally ahead of the other three teams. The Bengals and 49ers are tied for second-favorite at +250, while the Eagles bring up the rear at +260.
The implied win probability for all four teams is between 27 and 31 percent.
Bengals impressive in win over Bills to set up AFC championship rematch
All due respect to the Eagles, whom we’ll come to in a minute, the Bengals put in the most-impressive performance of the divisional round. Cincinnati went into Orchard Park as 5.5-point underdogs to the Bills, but opened up an early 14-0 lead and never looked back.
They outgained Buffalo by nearly 100 yards (412 to 325) in the game and forced the only two turnovers of the contest. Their banged-up offensive line allowed just one sack, a massively encouraging sign for Bengals fans moving forward. The Bengals o-line was missing three starters.
The Cincinnati defense held Buffalo, which was 7-1 at home coming into the game, to a season-low ten points. After the four-minute mark of the first quarter, Cincinnati’s lead was never trimmed below seven in its 27-10 victory.
Kansas City’s win over Jacksonville was impressive in its own right. The Chiefs never trailed, didn’t turn the ball over, and held the ball for 35:01 (to the Jaguars 24:59). They would have covered as 9.5-point favorites if not for a last-minute field goal from the Jags which made it a one-score game.
But the quality of competition wasn’t the same, nor was the hostility of the environment.
The Bengals vs. Chiefs odds for the the AFC Championship Game opened at Kansas City -2.5, but that was down to KC -1 by publish time.
Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs in his short career, including a victory in last year’s AFC title game (27-24 OT).
Eagles rout Giants as 49ers hold off Cowboys
After Saturday’s Giants/Eagles game, one would have thought that the mantle of “most-impressive team” was going to the Eagles for the divisional round. Philadelphia boat-raced New York 28-0 in the first half and cruised to a 38-7 win. They dominated every facet of the game, with the offense racking up 416 total yards, including a ludicrous 268 on the ground, and the defense holding the Giants to just 227.
The Philly pass rush got to Giants QB Daniel Jones five times as “Danny Dimes” went just 15/27 for a paltry 109 yards.
The renewed rivalry between the 49ers and Cowboys was a low-scoring, back-and-forth affair until the fourth quarter. Neither team led by more than a field goal until Christian McCaffrey broke a 9-9 tie with a two-yard touchdown on the first play of the final frame.
Rookie QB Brock Purdy continued to play well enough. The Iowa State product was 19/29 for 214 yards in the defensive battle. Importantly, he only took two sacks against the league’s third-best pass rush and didn’t throw an interception.
The Eagles opened as two-point favorites over the 49ers in next Sunday’s NFC title game.
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